Friday, July 17, 2015

Key Measures Show Low Inflation in June

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2015 11:39:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.6% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (3.9% annualized rate) in June. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for June here. Motor fuel was up sharply again in June.

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.7%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.8%. Core PCE is for May and increased 1.2% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 3.6% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.6% annualized, and core CPI was at 2.2% annualized.

On a year-over-year basis these measures suggest inflation remains below the Fed's target of 2% (median CPI is above 2%).

Inflation is still low, and a key question is: Will inflation move up towards 2%?