Friday, June 26, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecasts for June: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best June in a Decade

by Bill McBride on 6/26/2015 03:41:00 PM

The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Wednesday, July 1st. Sales in May were at 17.7 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales will in June will be over 17 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in June, one less than in June 2014.  Here are a few forecasts:

From Auto Industry Poised for Best June Sales in a Decade, Forecasts ... forecasts that 1,484,487 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.3 million. The projected sales will be a 9.0 percent decrease from May 2015, but a 4.7 percent increase from June 2014. If the sales volume holds, it will mark the best-selling month of June since 2006, and the biggest June SAAR since 2005.
emphasis added
From J.D. Power: June New-Vehicle Retail Sales Strongest For the Month in a Decade
The forecast for new-vehicle retail sales in June 2015 is 1,169,600 units, a 1 percent increase on a selling-day adjusted basis compared with June 2014 and the highest retail sales volume for the month since June 2005, when sales hit 1,350,004. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of consumer demand for new vehicles. [Total forecast 17.2 million SAAR]
From Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Rise Nearly 6 Percent In June 2015, According To Kelley Blue Book
New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 5.8 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.5 million units in June 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book ...
"With another month of new-car sales growth in June 2015, the sixteenth in a row, the auto industry continues its incredibly strong momentum. With a 17.4 million projected SAAR for June, it would mark the third month above 17 million out of the past four months," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "However, heading into the summer months, sales should flatten out at a more sustainable pace."
Another strong month for auto sales.  Let the good times roll!