by Bill McBride on 6/25/2015 01:17:00 PM
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in May to 1.58%, down from 1.66% in April. Freddie's rate is down from 2.10% in May 2014, and the rate in May was the lowest level since November 2008.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for May in a few days.
Click on graph for larger image
Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.52 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until late 2016.
So even though delinquencies and distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).