by Bill McBride on 6/22/2015 08:38:00 AM
Monday, June 22, 2015
The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth slightly below average in May
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to –0.17 in May from –0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from April, but only the employment, unemployment, and hours category made a positive contribution to the index in May.This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased slightly to –0.16 in May from –0.20 in April. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Click on graph for larger image.
This suggests economic activity was somewhat below the historical trend in May (using the three-month average).
According to the Chicago Fed:
What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
Posted by Bill McBride on 6/22/2015 08:38:00 AM