Sunday, May 31, 2015

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending

by Bill McBride on 5/31/2015 08:27:00 PM

From Jim Hamilton at Econbrowser: Current economic conditions: not as bad as it sounds

The new BEA data also allow us to calculate an alternative estimate of GDP, building the estimate up from income data instead of expenditures. In terms of the underlying concepts, the income-based and expenditure-based calculations should produce the identical number for GDP. But because the data sources are different, in practice the two estimates differ, with the difference officially reported as a “statistical discrepancy.” While the expenditure-based GDP estimate showed a 0.7% decline at an annual rate, the income-based GDP estimate implied 1.4% growth for the first quarter. Moreover, using the statistical method for reconciling and combining the different estimates proposed by Aruoba, Diebold, Nalewaik, Schorfheide, and Song (ADNSS), the best estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth based on the existing data might be about 2%.
No worries.

• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for an increase to 51.8 from 51.5 in April. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 51.5% in April. The employment index was at 48.3%, and the new orders index was at 53.5%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

Schedule for Week of May 31, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up 3 and DOW futures are up 36 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $59.97 per barrel and Brent at $65.19 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $103, and Brent was at $108 - so, even with the recent increases, prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Below is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up to $2.75 per gallon (down about $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by