by Bill McBride on 5/30/2015 08:41:00 AM
Saturday, May 30, 2015
The key report this week is the May employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the April Personal Income and Outlays report on Thursday, May ISM manufacturing index on Friday, May vehicle sales on Friday, April Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and the May ISM non-manufacturing index also on Tuesday.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for an increase to 51.8 from 51.5 in April.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 51.5% in April. The employment index was at 48.3%, and the new orders index was at 53.5%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.0 million SAAR in May from 16.5 million in April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the April sales rate.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for April. The consensus is a 0.1% decrease in orders.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 200,000 payroll jobs added in May, up from 169,000 in April.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through March. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $43.9 billion in April from $51.4 billion in March. Note: The trade deficit increased sharply in March after the West Coast port slowdown was resolved in February. The deficit should decline significantly in April.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for index to decrease to 57.2 from 57.8 in April.
2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 276 thousand from 282 thousand.
8:30 AM: Productivity and Costs for Q1. The consensus is for a 6.0% increase in unit labor costs.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for May. The consensus is for an increase of 220,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May, up from the 213,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate be unchanged at 5.4%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In April, the year-over-year change was just under 3.0 million jobs.
As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for March from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for an increase of $16.0 billion in credit.