Thursday, February 19, 2015

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 5.2 in February

by Bill McBride on 2/19/2015 10:11:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: February Manufacturing Survey

Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated continued modest growth in the region’s manufacturing sector in February. Although the current activity index fell for the third consecutive month, it remained positive, and the employment indicator increased from its reading last month. The survey’s future activity index also fell but continues to reflect general optimism about manufacturing growth in the region over the next six months.
...
The diffusion index for current general activity fell slightly, from a reading of 6.3 in January to 5.2 this month ...

The survey’s indicators for current labor market conditions suggest a slight improvement this month, as the employment index increased 6 points and returned to a positive reading ...
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 8.5 for January.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The light blue line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through February. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through January.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in February, and this suggests a slightly weaker ISM report for February.