Tuesday, November 18, 2014

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 58 in November

by Bill McBride on 11/18/2014 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 58 in November, up from 54 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Four Points in November

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose four points to a level of 58 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

“Growing confidence among consumers is what’s fueling this optimism among builders,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “Members in many areas of the country continue to see increasing buyer traffic and signed contracts.”

“Low interest rates, affordable home prices and solid job creation are contributing to a steady housing recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “After a slow start to the year, the HMI has remained above the 50-point benchmark for five consecutive months, and we expect the momentum to continue into 2015.”
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All three HMI components increased in November. The index gauging current sales conditions rose five points to 62, while the index measuring expectations for future sales moved up two points to 66 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased four points to 45.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose three points to 44, the South posted a four-point gain to 62, and the West edged up one point to 58. The Midwest registered a two-point loss to 57.
emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast of 55.