Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.6% year-over-year in July

by Bill McBride on 9/30/2014 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the new monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Broad-Based Easing of Home Price Gains in July According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through July 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... show a significant slowdown in price increases. Nineteen of the 20 cities saw lower annual returns in July. Las Vegas, Miami and San Francisco were the only cities to report double-digit annual gains. Cleveland’s rate remained unchanged at +0.9% for the 12 months ending July 2014.

In July, the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 0.6% and the National Index 0.5%. Although all cities but one gained on a monthly basis, 17 saw smaller increases in July as compared to last month. Although New York saw a lower gain this month, it was the only city where prices rose over one percent. San Francisco posted its largest decline of 0.4% since February 2012. ...

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.6% annual gain in July 2014. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year increases of 6.7%.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 18.7% from the peak, and down 0.5% in July (SA). The Composite 10 is up 23.1% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 17.9% from the peak, and down 0.5% (SA) in July. The Composite 20 is up 23.7% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The National index is off 11.4% from the peak, and up 0.2% (SA) in July.  The National index is up 19.7% from the post-bubble low set in Dec 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.7% compared to July 2013.

The Composite 20 SA is up 6.7% compared to July 2013.

The National index SA is up 5.6% compared to July 2013.

Prices increased (SA) in 5 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in July seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 19 of the 20 cities NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 42.6% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was lower than the consensus forecast for a 7.5% YoY increase for the Composite 20 index, and suggests a further slowdown in price increases. I'll have more on house prices later.