Thursday, July 17, 2014

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 302,000, 4-Week Average Lowest since June 2007

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2014 09:31:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 302,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 304,000 to 305,000. The 4-week moving average was 309,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 2, 2007 when it was 307,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 311,500 to 312,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was revised up to 305,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 309,000.

This was lower than the consensus forecast of 310,000.  The 4-week average is now at normal levels for an expansion.

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