by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2014 09:02:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for April. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 8.8 Percent Year Over Year in May

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 8.8 percent in May 2014 compared to May 2013. This change represents 27 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 1.4 percent in May 2014 compared to April 2014.
...
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 8.1 percent in May 2014 compared to May 2013 and 1.2 percent month over month compared to April 2014. ... Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

"The pace of home price appreciation is cooling off quickly as the weather warms up,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “May's 8.8 percent year-over-year growth rate is down almost three percentage points from just three months ago. The influences of modestly rising inventory and less-than-expected demand are causing price growth to moderate toward our forecasted expectations.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.4% in May, and is up 8.8% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, so a strong month-to-month gain was expected for May.


The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for twenty seven consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

However this was the smallest year-over-year gain since late 2012, and I expect the year-over-year increases to continue to slow.