Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Q4 GDP: Here come the Upgrades

by Bill McBride on 12/25/2013 10:53:00 AM

A little Christmas cheer ...

Via the WSJ:

Macroeconomic Advisers ... [raised] its estimate for fourth-quarter growth. It now forecasts gross domestic product to expand at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the final three months of the year, up three-tenths of a percentage point from an earlier estimate.
And Goldman Sachs has increased their Q4 GDP tracking to 2.4% annualized growth.

And based on the November Personal Income and Outlays report:
Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 PCE growth (first two months of the quarter), PCE was increasing at a 4.1% annual rate in Q4 2013. This suggests solid PCE growth in Q4.
Of course the contribution from private inventories will probably be negative in Q4, but final demand should be solid.

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to All!