Friday, December 20, 2013

Q3 GDP Revised up to 4.1%

by Bill McBride on 12/20/2013 08:39:00 AM

The BEA reports:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued on December 5, 2103. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.6 percent ... With this third estimate for the third quarter, increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and in nonresidential fixed investment were larger than previously estimated.

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to residential fixed investment.
Here is a comparison of the second and third estimates of GDP. PCE was revised up from a 1.4% annualized increase to 2.0%.

Note: Analysts are also upping their forecasts for Q4 GDP. As an example, from Merrill Lynch:
The data continue to come in stronger than expected and so we have raised our forecast for 4Q GDP growth from 1.2 to 2.1%.

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