Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.8% year-over-year in August

by Bill McBride on 10/29/2013 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Rise Further in August 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through August 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 12.8% year-over-year. Compared to July 2013, the annual growth rates accelerated for both Composites and 14 cities.

On a monthly basis, the 10-City and 20-City Composites gained 1.3% in August. Las Vegas led the cities with an increase of 2.9%, its highest since August 2004. Detroit and Los Angeles followed with gains of 2.0%. ... In August 2013, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 12.8%.

“The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 12.8% annual growth rate,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Both Composites showed their highest annual increases since February 2006. All 20 cities reported positive year-over-year returns. Thirteen cities posted double-digit annual gains. Las Vegas and California continue to impress with year-over-year increases of over 20%. Denver and Phoenix posted 20 consecutive annual increases; Miami and Minneapolis 19. Despite showing 26 consecutive annual gains, Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 index level.
...
“Denver and Dallas again set new highs. All the other cities remain below their peaks. Boston and Charlotte are the two MSAs closest to their peaks with only 8-9% left to go. Las Vegas is still down 47.1% from its peak level.”
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 23.1% from the peak, and up 0.9% in August (SA). The Composite 10 is up 16.7% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 22.3% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in August. The Composite 20 is up 17.3% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 12.2% compared to August 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 12.8% compared to August 2012. This was the fifteenth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in August seasonally adjusted.  Prices in Las Vegas are off 47.7% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs.

This was above the consensus forecast for a 12.4% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.

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