Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Retail Sales increased 0.2% in July

by Bill McBride on 8/13/2013 08:46:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.4% from July 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $424.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent from the previous month, and 5.4 percent above July 2012. ... The May to June 2013 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent to +0.6 percent.

Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 28.1% from the bottom, and now 12.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.5%. 

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 25.1% from the bottom, and now 12.6% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.5% on a YoY basis (5.4% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast of 0.3% increase in retail sales, however this was above the forecast ex-autos - and the June retail sales were revised up from a 0.4% gain to a 0.6% gain.