by Bill McBride on 6/15/2013 12:30:00 PM
Saturday, June 15, 2013
The key event this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday. No changes in policy are expected, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to reiterate that rates will stay low for a long long time.
There are three key housing reports that will be released this week, housing starts on Tuesday, homebuilder confidence survey on Monday, and existing home sales on Thursday.
For manufacturing, the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed June surveys will be released this week. For prices, CPI will be released on Tuesday.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -1.4 in May (above zero is expansion).
10:00 AM ET: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 45, up from 44 in May. This index increased sharply last year, but has moved sideways recently with some builders complaining about higher costs and lack of buildable land. Any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for May.
Total housing starts were at 853 thousand (SAAR) in April, 16.5 percent below the revised March estimate of 1.021 million. Single family starts declined slightly to 610 thousand SAAR in April.
The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 950 thousand (SAAR) in May.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in CPI in May and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to interest rates or QE purchases is expected at this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 340 thousand from 334 thousand last week.
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for June. The index was at 52.3 in May.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 5.00 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in April were at a 4.97 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a May sales rate of 5.2 million.
A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.
10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -0.5, up from -5.2 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for May 2013