Thursday, June 20, 2013

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey indicates Expansion in June

by Bill McBride on 6/20/2013 01:35:00 PM

Catching up ... from the Philly Fed: June Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing firms responding to the monthly Business Outlook Survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity increased this month. Most of the survey’s broadest current indicators were positive this month, suggesting an improvement in business conditions. The survey's indicators of future activity continue to suggest that firms expect growth over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from ‑5.2 in May to 12.5, its highest reading since April 2011.

Labor market conditions showed continued weakness, however, with indexes suggesting lower employment among the reporting manufacturers. Although it increased 3 points to ‑5.4, the employment index remained negative for the third consecutive month.
emphasis added
Earlier in the week, the Empire State manufacturing survey also indicated expansion in June.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through June. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through May.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys turned positive in June, and this suggests a rebound in the ISM report for June. The June ISM report will be released Monday, July 1, 2013.