Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in March

by Bill McBride on 4/10/2013 03:01:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales and foreclosures for several selected cities in March. 

Look at the right two columns in the table below (Total "Distressed" Share for March 2013 compared to March 2012). In every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in most areas. 

Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales just about everywhere. Look at the middle two columns comparing foreclosure sales for March 2013 to March 2012. Foreclosure sales have declined in all these areas, and some of the declines have been stunning (the Nevada sales were impacted by the new foreclosure law). 

Also there has been a shift from foreclosures to short sales. In all of these areas - except Minneapolis- short sales now out number foreclosures.

This is worth repeating: Imagine that the number of total existing home sales doesn't change or even declines over the next year - some people would argue that is "bad" news and the housing market isn't recovering. But also imagine that the share of distressed sales declines sharply, and conventional sales increase significantly. That would be a positive sign - and that is what is now happening.

An example would be Sacramento (I posted data on Sacramento earlier today).  In Sacramento, total sales were down 17% in March 2013 compared to March 2012, but conventional sales were up 29%!  That is a positive sign.


 Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales ShareTotal "Distressed" Share
13-Mar12-Mar13-Mar12-Mar13-Mar12-Mar
Las Vegas33.3%26.6%11.2%40.7%44.5%67.3%
Reno32.0%34.0%9.0%32.0%41.0%66.0%
Phoenix15.1%25.7%11.6%21.1%26.8%46.8%
Sacramento27.0%29.0%10.5%30.7%37.5%59.7%
Minneapolis9.3%12.4%28.6%36.5%37.9%48.9%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)11.4%13.2%10.7%14.7%22.1%27.9%

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