Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Wednesday: Q4 GDP, FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment

by Bill McBride on 1/29/2013 07:16:00 PM

Doug Short provides a preview on GDP: WSJ Economists' GDP Forecasts: 1.6% for Q4 2012 and 1.7 in Q1 2013

A big economic announcement this week will be tomorrow's Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The final number for Q3 GDP was 3.1%. The general consensus is that Q4 will show a significant decline in this broad measure of the economy. Investing.com weighs in at 1.8%. According to Briefing.com, the consensus for Q4 is 1.0%. However, Briefing.com's own estimate, I should point out, is considerably lower at 0.1%.
From Merrill Lynch:
The first release of Q4 GDP is likely to show that growth weakened at the end of 2012. We forecast GDP growth of 1.0%, down from the 3.1% pace in Q3. However, much of the slowdown owes to a contraction in inventories and widening in the trade deficit; domestic final sales should hold close to 2.0%. As such, we advise smoothing through the two quarters to gauge the underlying trend of the economy.

We expect a decent gain in consumer spending of 2.3% and a solid increase in residential investment of 17%. ... The healthy gain in residential investment reflects the turn in homebuilding and greater renovation spending. We also expect equipment and software investment to increase after declining in Q3. On the downside, the trade deficit is likely to widen due to a sharp drop in exports. The biggest drag, however, will come from a sharp contraction in inventories.
As always, the details will matter.

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for January will be released. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 172,000 payroll jobs added in January. Even with the new methodology, the report still hasn't been that useful in predicting the BLS report.

• At 8:30 AM, the Q4 GDP report will be released. This is the advance (first) release from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.0% annualized in Q4.

• Around 11:15 AM, the FOMC Meeting Announcement will be released. No significant changes are expected,

Earlier on House Prices:
Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in November
Comment on House Prices, Real House Prices, and Price-to-Rent Ratio
All Current House Price Graphs

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