Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Case-Shiller: House Prices increased 5.5% year-over-year in November

by Bill McBride on 1/29/2013 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (a 3 month average of September, October and November).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Extend Gains According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through November 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed home prices rose 4.5% for the 10-City Composite and 5.5% for the 20-City Composite in the 12 months ending in November 2012.

“The November monthly figures were stronger than October, with 10 cities seeing rising prices versus seven the month before.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Phoenix and San Francisco were both up 1.4% in November followed by Minneapolis up 1.0%. On the down side, Chicago was again amongst the weakest with a drop of 1.3% for November.

“Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of 20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while Cleveland was flat.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 30.7% from the peak, and up 0.5% in November (SA). The Composite 10 is up 5.3% from the post bubble low set in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 29.8% from the peak, and up 0.6% (SA) in November. The Composite 20 is up 6.0% from the post-bubble low set in March (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.5% compared to November 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.5% compared to November 2011. This was the sixth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).  This was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in November seasonally adjusted (also 10 of 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 57.6% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 3.8% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through November 2012) is above previous declines for all cities.

This was slightly below the consensus forecast for a 5.8% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.

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