Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in December

by Bill McBride on 1/23/2013 03:52:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales and foreclosures for several selected cities in December. This shows distressed sales are down just about everywhere, and there are more short sales than foreclosures in most areas (Minneapolis and Colorado are exceptions.

Look at the right two columns in the table below (Total "Distressed" Share for Dec 2012 compared to Dec 2011). In every area that reports distressed sales, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in most areas. 

Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales just about everywhere. Look at the middle two columns comparing foreclosure sales for Dec 2012 to Dec 2011. Foreclosure sales have declined in all these areas, and some of the declines have been stunning (the Nevada sales were impacted by a new foreclosure law).  There will probably be an increase in foreclosure sales in some judicial states in 2013, but overall foreclosures will probably be down this year.

Also there has been a shift from foreclosures to short sales. In most areas, short sales now far out number foreclosures.

As a follow-up to the previous post, imagine that the number of total existing home sales doesn't change over the next year - some people would argue that is "bad" news and the housing market isn't recovering. But also imagine that the share of distressed sales declines 20%, and conventional sales increase to make up the difference. That would be a positive sign - and that is what appears to be happening.

Comments from Tom Lawler: Below is an updated “distressed sales” share report for December (or, for Colorado and Columbus, Ohio, Q4).  Data are based on releases by realtor associations/MLS, save for California and Memphis, which are based on property records (and for California, Dataquick’s estimates for short sales).

Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales ShareTotal "Distressed" Share
12-Dec11-Dec12-Dec11-Dec12-Dec11-Dec
Las Vegas45.8%26.6%9.5%46.0%55.3%72.6%
Reno47.0%35.0%10.0%24.0%57.0%59.0%
Phoenix27.2%32.2%12.2%27.6%39.4%59.8%
Sacramento40.0%30.2%11.5%33.9%51.5%64.1%
Minneapolis12.3%14.6%26.6%35.8%38.9%50.4%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)13.0%14.3%9.7%15.4%22.7%29.7%
Orlando30.2%36.6%20.4%22.2%50.6%58.8%
California (DQ)*25.3%25.5%15.5%33.9%40.8%59.4%
So. California (DQ)*25.6%26.0%14.8%32.4%40.4%58.4%
Lee County, FL***18.9%20.4%17.2%24.1%36.1%44.5%
Florida SF21.6%25.1%16.9%20.1%38.6%45.2%
Florida C/TH16.6%23.4%14.7%18.7%31.3%42.1%
Northeast Florida    43.0%49.8%
Chicago    44.3%45.8%
Charlotte    15.6%17.7%
Colorado**7.3%7.6%12.5%20.6%19.8%28.2%
Columbus OH**    27.8%38.7%
Atlanta  26.0%47.0%  
Houston  14.2%20.5%  
Memphis*  26.9%30.2%  
Birmingham AL  27.8%34.0%  
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Third Quarter
*** SF only

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