Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Q3 GDP, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 09:23:00 PM

First, Stan Collender reviews his budget predictions for 2012 and offers five predictions for 2013: Beyond The Fiscal Cliff: My Budget Crystal Ball For 2013. One of his 2012 predictions is still open:

The one prediction whose fate is still unknown is that I told readers not to be shocked if the only thing that happens in a lame-duck session is a deal that both extends the tax cuts and delays the sequester spending cuts until June 30, 2013, or beyond. We should know in a few weeks whether that happens.
My guess is some sort of deal will be worked out in early January, but Collender might be correct and everything could get extended for six months.

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 359 thousand from 343 thousand last week. If correct, this would put the 4-week just above the low for the year.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the third estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.8% annualized in Q3, up slightly from the 2.7% second estimate.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.90 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in October 2012 were 4.79 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales at 5.10 million SAAR.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of minus 2.0, up from minus 10.7 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board Leading Indicators for November. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in this index.

• Also at 10:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for October 2012. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in house prices.


Another question for the December economic prediction contest (Note: You can use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

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