by Bill McBride on 10/05/2012 08:30:00 AM
Friday, October 05, 2012
From the BLS:
The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.Click on graph for larger image.
[Household survey] Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to 58.7 percent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labor force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labor force participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to +142,000.
Even though payroll growth was weak, this was a much stronger report than the last few months, especially considering the upward revisions to the July and August reports. And that doesn't include the annual benchmark revision (that will also show more jobs).
This was slightly above expectations of 113,000 payroll jobs added.
The second graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8% (red line). This is from the household report, and that report showed strong job growth.
The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 63.6% in September (blue line. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.
The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the recent decline is due to demographics.
The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.7% in September (black line). This is still very low.
The third graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.
This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.
The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms compared to other financial crisis (including the Great Depression).
This is an update to a graph by economist Josh Lehner (ht Josh for the data):
[I]n the context of the Big 5 financial crises, the current U.S. cycle suddenly does not look quite as dire. Notice how the x-axis, how long it takes to return to peak levels of employment, is measured in years(!) not months like the first graph.Even though payroll growth was weak and close to expectations (expected was 113,000), overall this was a much stronger report than for recent months. I'll have much more later ...
[T]he U.S. labor market has performed better than 4 of the previous Big 5 crises, as identified by Reinhart and Rogoff, in terms of job loss and the return to peak time line.
Posted by Bill McBride on 10/05/2012 08:30:00 AM