Saturday, September 01, 2012

Schedule for Week of Sept 2nd

by Bill McBride on 9/01/2012 12:57:00 PM

Earlier:
Summary for Week Ending Aug 31st

The key report for this week will be the August employment report to be released on Friday, Sept 7th. Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, vehicle sales also on Tuesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index on Thursday.

On Thursday, September 6th, there is a Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt with a press conference to follow. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to discuss how the ECB will help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

----- Monday, Sept 3rd-----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

----- Tuesday, Sept 4th -----

All day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 14.3 million SAAR in August from 14.1 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Vehicle SalesThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the July sales rate.

TrueCar is forecasting:
The August 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.2 million new car sales, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012.
Edmunds.com is forecasting:
Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,287,603 new cars will be sold in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 14.5 million light vehicles.
ISM PMI10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for August.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM index has shown contraction for two consecutive months; the first contraction in the ISM index since the recession ended in 2009. The consensus is for an increase to 50.0, up from 49.8 in July. (below 50 is contraction).

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

----- Wednesday, Sept 5th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Productivity and Costs for Q2. The consensus is for a 1.4% increase in unit labor costs.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for August. This is the new index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

----- Thursday, Sept 6th -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 149,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from the 163,000 reported last month.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 370 thousand from 374 thousand.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for an increase to 53.0 from 52.6 in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

During the day: Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank with a press conference to follow.

----- Friday, Sept 7th -----
Payroll Forecast8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 125,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August, down from the 163,000 jobs added in July.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 8.3%.

This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through June.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The economy has added 4.54 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (4.00 million total jobs added with all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 4.3 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. (4.8 million fewer total nonfarm jobs).