by Bill McBride on 7/28/2012 01:01:00 PM
Saturday, July 28, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending July 27th
The key report for this week will be the July employment report to be released on Friday, Aug 3rd. Other key reports include the May Case-Shiller house price indexes on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, vehicle sales on Wednesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index on Friday.
On Wednesday, the FOMC concludes a two day meeting, and there is the possibility of additional policy accommodation. The European Central Bank (ECB) holds a meeting on Thursday, and there will be a focus on ECB President Mario Draghi's comments following the meeting.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for July. This is the last of regional surveys for July. The consensus is for 2.5 for the general business activity index, down from 5.8 in June.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for June. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income in June, and for 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. Although this is the May report, it is really a 3 month average of March, April and May.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through April 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 1.4% decrease year-over-year in Composite 20 prices (NSA) in May. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to decline 1.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.8% month-to-month seasonally adjusted. The CoreLogic index increased 1.8% in May (NSA).
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.5, down from 52.9 in June.
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July. The consensus is for a decrease to 61.5 from 62.0 last month.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.
All day: Light vehicle sales for July. Light vehicle sales are expected to decrease to 14.0 million from 14.1 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the June sales rate.
TrueCar is forecasting:
The July 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.1 million new car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011 and down from 14.1 million in June 2012Edmunds.com is forecasting:
An estimated 1,166,665 new cars will be sold in July for a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.0 million light vehicles, according to the latest auto sales forecast by Edmunds.com.8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 120,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from the 176,000 reported last month.
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for July.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. Last month saw the first contraction in the ISM index since the recession ended in 2009. The consensus is for an increase to 50.1, up from 49.7 in June. (below 50 is contraction).
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.
2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to interest rates, however additional policy accommodation is possible.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 370 thousand from 353 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for May. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in orders.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 100,000 non-farm payroll jobs in July, up from the 80,000 jobs added in June.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.2%.
This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through June.
The economy has added 3.84 million jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (4.37 million private sector jobs added, and 0.53 million public sector jobs lost).
There are still 4.5 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. (4.9 million fewer total nonfarm jobs).
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.0 from 52.1 in June. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.