by Bill McBride on 7/02/2012 03:08:00 PM
Monday, July 02, 2012
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May. The Case-Shiller index released last week was for April. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® May Home Price Index Shows Third Consecutive Monthly Increase
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.0 percent in May 2012 compared to May 2011. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, also increased by 1.8 percent in May 2012 compared to April 2012. The May 2012 figures mark the third consecutive increase in home prices nationwide on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.Click on graph for larger image.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.7 percent in May 2012 compared to May 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices increased 2.3 percent in May 2012 compared to April 2012, the fourth month-over-month increase in a row. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that house prices, including distressed sales, will rise by at least another 1.4 percent from May 2012 to June 2012. Excluding distressed sales, house prices are also poised to rise by 2.0 percent during that same time period.
“The recent upward trend in U.S. home prices is an encouraging signal that we may be seeing a bottoming of the housing down cycle,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “Tighter inventory is contributing to broad, but modest, price gains nationwide and more significant gains in the harder-hit markets, like Phoenix.”
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 1.8% in May, and is up 2.0% over the last year.
The index is off 30% from the peak - and is up 5% from the post-bubble low set in February (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).
The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has turned positive.
This is the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase, and excluding the tax credit bump, these are the first year-over-year increases since 2006.