by Bill McBride on 6/23/2012 08:01:00 AM
Saturday, June 23, 2012
The key US economic reports this week are May New Home Sales on Monday, April Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, and the May Personal Income and Outlays report on Friday.
With the recent economic weakness, the high frequency manufacturing reports (Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City Fed surveys), the Chicago PMI, weekly initial unemployment claims, and consumer sentiment will be closely watched.
In Europe, there is a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the April sales rate.
The consensus is for an increase in sales to 350 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in May from 343 thousand in April.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for 0.0 for the general business activity index, up from -5.1 in May.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through Marchy 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 2.3% decrease year-over-year in Composite 20 prices (NSA) in April. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to decline 1.9% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted. The CoreLogic index increased 2.6% in April (NSA).
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 63.5 from 64.9 last month.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. The consensus is for an increase to 5 for this survey from 4 in May (above zero is expansion).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. Refinance activity has been increasing sharply, and it appears purchase activity is increasing a little too.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in durable goods orders.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase in the index.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decline to 385 thousand from 387 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.9% annualized in Q1; no change from the 2nd estimate.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 4 from 9 in May (above zero is expansion). This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for May. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income in May, and for no change in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for an increase to 53.1, up from 52.7 in May.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for June). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 74.1.