by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2012 05:31:00 PM

Note: The Case-Shiller report is for April (really an average of prices in February, March and April). This data is released with a significant lag, see: House Prices and Lagged Data

Zillow Forecast: Zillow Forecast: April Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 1.9% Decline from One Year Ago

On Tuesday, June 26th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for April will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 2.4 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from March to April will be 0.5 percent for both the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the April Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.

April is the third consecutive month with monthly appreciation for the Case-Shiller indices, with April projected to be particularly strong. Buyers are experiencing many markets with extremely low inventory, which is propping up prices in the near term, paired with a decreasing share of foreclosure re-sales. The decreasing share of foreclosure re-sales, especially, will impact the Case-Shiller indices positively this month.

Despite the recent uptick in home prices, we do believe that 2012 will end on a lower level than 2011.

Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.

One of the keys this year is to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 2.8% and 2.6% YoY respectively in March, after declining 3.6% and 3.5% in February. Zillow is forecasting a smaller year-over-year decline in April.

		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	April 2011	151.78	154.81	138.43	141.27
Case-Shiller (last month)	March 2012	146.61	149.55	134.10	136.90
Zillow March Forecast	YoY	-2.4%	-2.4%	-1.9%	-1.9%
	MoM	1.1%	0.5%	1.2%	0.5%
Zillow Forecasts1		148.2	150.7	135.8	138.6
Current Post Bubble Low		146.61	149.29	134.10	136.57
Date of Post Bubble Low		March 2012	January 2012	March 2012	January 2012
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts