by Bill McBride on 6/15/2012 10:27:00 PM
Friday, June 15, 2012
I've always enjoyed reading Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg's analysis. Of course Rosenberg has been bearish on the economy and the stock market for years. But I found his comments in this article amusing: Market Bear Gets (a Little) Bullish
[It]caused a mini-sensation within financial circles this week when Mr. Rosenberg—the former economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. who’s now at Canadian money-management firm Gluskin Sheff—wrote a morning commentary titled “Parting of the Clouds?”And the article concludes:
... “I do see a light at the end of the dark tunnel,” [Rosenberg] wrote.
“Don’t be surprised,” he wrote, “if I end up turning bullish ahead of the pack.”Really? After missing the sluggish recovery and the large run up in the stock market, Rosenberg thinks he will be "ahead of the pack"?
Geesh. I wrote "Looking for the Sun" in February 2009. That was one of several posts about the coming end of the recession. I even used some of Rosenberg's analysis on auto sales (arguing Rosenberg was wrong), as one of my reasons that we were nearing the end of the recession (see Vehicle Sales, Jan, 2009). Needless to say I was correct about auto sales - auto sales have been a key driver of the sluggish recovery - and I was correct about the economy (and, in a rarity for me, I even mentioned my bullish outlook on the stock market). Of course, even though I thought a recovery would start, I thought it would be choppy and sluggish.
So Rosenberg was wrong, and I was correct. And now, three years later, he is looking for the "parting of the clouds?" and he thinks he will be "ahead of the pack"? Oh my. I feel like saying "Check the scoreboard, Mr. Rosenberg!"
But I still enjoy reading his analysis :-)
P.S. His reasons for turning more optimistic (more austerity in the US) are wrong too.