Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increased in March

by Bill McBride on 4/24/2012 08:02:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 48 states, decreased in one state (Rhode Island), and remained stable in one state (South Dakota), for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of 100.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 49 states had increasing activity, up from 47 in February. The number of states with increasing activity has been at or above 47 for the last seven consecutive months.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession.

Now the map is all green. The recovery may be sluggish, but it is widespread geographically.

On March New Home Sales:
New Home Sales in March at 328,000 Annual Rate
Comments on Housing and "Distressing Gap" GraphNew Home Sales graphs

On House Prices:
Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in February NSA
Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio at late '90s Levels
House Price graphs