Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Retail Sales increased 0.4% in January

by Bill McBride on 2/14/2012 08:46:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.4% from December to January (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 5.8% from January 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $401.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 5.8 percent (±0.7%) above January 2011. ... The November to December 2011 percent change was revised from 0.1 percent (±0.5)* to virtually unchanged (±0.3%)*.
Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for December were revised down from a 0.1% increase to "virtually unchanged".

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 20.7% from the bottom, and now 6.1% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail Sales since 2006The second graph shows the same data since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 17.3% from the bottom, and now 5.6% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.6% on a YoY basis (5.8% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.3% in January.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThis was below the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.7% increase in January, but above the consensus for a 0.5% increase ex-auto.



All current retail sales graphs