Monday, January 09, 2012

CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.4% in November

by Bill McBride on 1/09/2012 10:05:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic Home Price Index report is for November. The Case-Shiller index released in late December was for October. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of September, October and November (November weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® November Home Price Index Shows Fourth Consecutive Monthly Decline

CoreLogic ...today released its November Home Price Index (HPI®) report ... which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis in November 2011 compared to November 2010. This follows a decline of 3.7 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.6 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010 and by 1.6 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“With one month of data left to report, it appears that the healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011. Distressed sales continue to put downward pressure on prices, and is a factor that must be addressed in 2012 for a housing recovery to become a reality,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was down 1.4% in November, and is down 4.3% over the last year.

The index is off 32.8% from the peak - and up just 1.2% from the March 2011 low.

Some of this decrease is seasonal (the CoreLogic index is NSA). Month-to-month prices changes will probably remain negative through March 2012 and it is likely that there will be new post-bubble low for this index in the next month or two.
All House Price Graphs