Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in October (seasonally adjusted)

by Bill McBride on 12/27/2011 09:40:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (a 3 month average of August, September and October). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data. Here is a table of the year-over-year and monthly changes for both SA and NSA.


Case Shiller October 2011Seasonally AdjustedNot Seasonally Adjusted
YoY ChangeOne Month ChangeYoY ChangeOne Month Change
Composite 10-3.0%-0.5%-3.0%-1.1%
Composite 20-3.4%-0.6%-3.4%-1.2%

From S&P: The Fourth Quarter Starts with Broad-based Declines in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Data through October 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed decreases of 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October vs. September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of -3.0% and -3.4% versus October 2010, respectively.

“There was weakness in the monthly statistics, as 19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Eleven of the cities and both composites fell by 1.0% or more during the month.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 32.9% from the peak, and down 0.5% in October (SA). The Composite 10 is at a new post bubble low (Seasonally adjusted), but still above the low NSA.

The Composite 20 index is off 33.0% from the peak, and down 0.6% in October (SA). The Composite 20 is also at a new post-bubble low.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 3.0% compared to October 2010.

The Composite 20 SA is down 3.4% compared to October 2010. This was a slightly smaller year-over-year decline for both indexes than in September.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 4 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in October seasonally adjusted (only one city increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 61.3% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 8.8% from the peak.

The NSA indexes are only about 2% above the March 2011 lows - and these indexes will hit new lows in the next few months since prices are falling again. Using the SA data, the Case-Shiller indexes are now at new post-bubble lows!

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