Thursday, October 20, 2011

House Price Indexes show price declines in August

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2011 07:05:00 PM

The Case-Shiller House Price index for August will be released Tuesday, Oct 25th. Two other indexes were released today:

• From FNC: Home Prices End Recent Seasonal Rebound with 0.8% Decline in August

FNC’s latest Residential Price Index, released Thursday, indicates U.S. home prices declined in August despite strong existing home sales during the month. This decline reverses a modest fourth-month long seasonal uptrend.
...
Based on the latest data on non-distressed home sales (existing and new homes), FNC’s Residential Price Index™ 1 (RPI) indicates that single-family home prices fell in August to a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.8%. As a gauge of underlying home value, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are often sold with large price discounts due to poor property conditions.
The FNC index tables for three composite indexes and 30 cities are here.

• From Radar Logic today Radar Logic Sees Nothing But Weakness in Recent Housing Data
The seasonal decline in home prices shifted into high gear in August. The 25-metropolitan-area RPX Composite Price declined 0.8 percent from July to August, the largest decline for this time of year since the crash of 2008. The RPX Composite price declined 4.7 percent relative to August 2010 ...

Last month, we predicted that the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for July 2011 would be about 156 and the 20-City composite would be roughly 143. In fact, the 10-City composite was 156.23 and the 20-City composite was 142.77.

The August 2011 10-City composite index will be about 156, and the 20-City index will be roughly 142.
• CoreLogic reported earlier this month for August: Home prices decreased 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis
August Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, the first monthly decline in four months. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined on a year-over-year basis by 4.4 percent in August 2011 compared to August 2010.... Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.7 percent in August 2011 compared to August 2010 and by 1.7 percent in July 2011 compared to July 2010. ...

“Although the calendar says August, the end of the summer traditionally marks the beginning of ‘fall’ for the housing market as it begins to prepare for ‘winter.’ So the slight month-over-month decline was predictable ...” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller is a 3 month average (June, July and August), but even with prices for June and July averaged in, the index will probably show price declines for August NSA. The expected seasonal decline in house prices has started.

On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, as of July, the Case-Shiller composite 10 index was 3.8% above the post-bubble low. The Composite 20 index was 3.7% above the post-bubble low (NSA). Prices will probably fall to new lows (NSA) later this year or early in 2012.

Earlier:
Existing Home Sales in September: 4.91 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply
Philly Fed Survey shows Expansion, Existing Home Sales NSA Graph
Existing Home Sales graphs

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