by Bill McBride on 9/01/2011 12:20:00 PM
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Note on Auto Sales: Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total August light vehicle sales (SAAR) - usually around 4 PM ET. The consensus is for a decrease to 12.1 million SAAR in August from 12.2 million SAAR in July. Sales in August 2010 were at a 11.44 million SAAR.
Catching up ... this morning from the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in July:
during July 2011 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $789.5 billion, 1.3 percent (±1.9%)* below the revised June estimate of $799.8 billion.Private construction spending decline in July:
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $514.5 billion, 0.9 percent (±1.1%)* below the revised June estimate of $519.0 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $248.1 billion in July, 1.4 percent (±1.3%) below the revised June estimate of $251.7 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $266.4 billion in July, 0.4 percent (±1.1%)* below the revised June estimate of $267.3 billion.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.
Private residential spending is 63% below the peak in early 2006, and non-residential spending is 36% below the peak in January 2008.
Private construction spending is mostly moving sideways, and it is public construction spending that is now declining. Note: Residential construction spending for May and June were revised up significantly.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.
On a year-over-year basis, both private residential and non-residential construction spending has turned positive, but public spending is now falling sharply as the stimulus spending ends. The improvements in private non-residential are mostly due to energy spending.