Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Recession Measures

by Bill McBride on 8/30/2011 05:39:00 PM

By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

These graphs show that most major indicators are still way below the pre-recession peaks.

GDP and GDI as percent of previous peakClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph is for real GDP through Q2 2011 and shows real GDP is still 0.5% below the previous pre-recession peak. However Gross Domestic Income (red) is now back to the pre-recession peak. (For a discussion of GDI, see here).

At the worst point, real GDP was off 5.1% from the 2007 peak. Real GDI was off 5.7% at the trough.

And real GDP has performed better than other indicators ...

Personal Income less Transfer This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak through July.

With the revisions, this measure was off almost 11% at the trough - a significant downward revision!

Real personal income less transfer payments is still 4.8% below the previous peak.

Industrial Production This graph is for industrial production through July.

Industrial production had been one of the stronger performing sectors because of inventory restocking and some growth in exports.

However industrial production is still 6.5% below the pre-recession peak, and it will probably be some time before industrial production returns to pre-recession levels.

Employment The final graph is for employment. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.

On the timing of the trough of the recession, GDP and industrial production would suggest the end of Q2 2009 (and June 2009). The other two indicators would suggest later troughs.

And of course the recovery in all indicators has been very sluggish compared to recent recessions.

Earlier:
Case Shiller: Home Prices increased in June
Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent