Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Case Shiller: Home Prices increased in June

by Bill McBride on 8/30/2011 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June (actually a 3 month average of April, May and June).

This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities), plus the Q2 2011 quarterly national house price index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data. The composite indexes were up about 1.1% in June (from May) Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), but flat Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

From S&P: Nationally, Home Prices Went Up in the Second Quarter of 2011 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through June 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... show that the U.S. National Home Price Index increased by 3.6% in the second quarter of 2011, after having fallen 4.1% in the first quarter of 2011. With the second quarter’s data, the National Index recovered from its first quarter low, but still posted an annual decline of 5.9% versus the second quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to their early 2003 levels.
As of June 2011, 19 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were up versus May – Portland was flat. However, they were all down compared to June 2010.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.9% from the peak, and up slightly in June (SA). The Composite 10 is 1.5% above the June 2009 post-bubble bottom (Seasonally adjusted).

The Composite 20 index is off 31.9% from the peak, and down slightly in June (SA). The Composite 20 is slightly above the March 2011 post-bubble bottom seasonally adjusted.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 3.9% compared to June 2010.

The Composite 20 SA is down 4.6% compared to June 2010.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 8 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in June seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 59.2% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 9.7% from the peak.

From S&P (NSA):
“Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites were up in June over May. Portland was flat. Cleveland has improved enough that average home prices in this market are back above its January 2000 levels. Only Detroit and Las Vegas remain below those levels
There could be some confusion between the SA and NSA numbers, but this increase was mostly seasonal. I'll have more later ...