Friday, August 19, 2011

On Track for Record Low Housing Completions in 2011

by Bill McBride on 8/19/2011 01:18:00 PM

An update: The U.S. is on pace for a record low number of total housing completions this year, and the fewest net housing units added to the housing stock since the Census Bureau started tracking completions in the '60s.

Below is a table of net housing units added to the housing stock since 1990. Note: Tom Lawler thinks scrappage is closer to 250,000 units per year.

This means there will be a record low number of housing units added to the housing stock this year (good news with all the excess inventory), and that the overhang of excess inventory should decline significantly in 2011 depending on the rate of household formation (and that depends on jobs).

Housing Units added to Stock (000s)
 1 to 4 Units5+ UnitsManufactured HomesSub-TotalDemolitions / ScrappageTotal added to Stock
19901010.8297.3188.31496.42001296.4
1991874.4216.6170.91261.92001061.9
1992999.7158210.51368.22001168.2
19931065.7127.1254.31447.12001247.1
19941192.1154.9303.91650.92001450.9
19951100.2212.4339.91652.52001452.5
19961161.6251.3363.31776.22001576.2
19971153.4247.1353.71754.22001554.2
19981200.3273.9373.11847.32001647.3
19991305.6299.3348.119532001753
20001269.1304.7250.41824.22001624.2
20011289.8281193.11763.92001563.9
20021360.1288.2168.51816.82001616.8
20031417.8260.8130.81809.42001609.4
20041555286.9130.71972.62001772.6
20051673.4258146.82078.22001878.2
20061695.3284.2117.32096.82001896.8
20071249.825395.71598.52001398.5
2008842.5277.281.91201.62001001.6
2009534.6259.849.8844.2150694.2
2010505.2146.550701.7150551.7
2011 (est)43312046599150449