by Bill McBride on 8/29/2011 03:32:00 PM
Monday, August 29, 2011
In June, Tom Lawler posted on how the NAR estimates existing home inventory. The NAR does NOT aggregate data from the local boards (see Tom's post for how the NAR estimates inventory). Sometime this fall, the NAR will revise down their estimates of inventory and sales for the last few years. Also the NAR methodology for estimating sales and inventory will likely (hopefully) be changed.
I think the HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers data that Tom mentioned might provide a timely estimate of changes in inventory. Ben at deptofnumbers.com is tracking the aggregate monthly inventory for 54 metro areas.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows the NAR estimate of existing home inventory through July (left axis) and the HousingTracker data for the 54 metro areas through August. The HousingTracker data shows a steeper decline in inventory over the last few years (as mentioned above, the NAR will probably revise down their inventory estimates this fall).
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the NAR and HousingTracker.
HousingTracker reported that the August listings - for the 54 metro areas - declined 14.1% from last year.
Of course there is a large percentage of distressed inventory, and various categories of "shadow inventory" too. But the decline in listed inventory is something to watch carefully all year.
• Personal Income increased 0.3% in July, Spending increased 0.8%
• Comparison of Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM
• Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 28th