Monday, August 29, 2011

House Price Preview

by Bill McBride on 8/29/2011 09:00:00 PM

The Case-Shiller House Price index for June will be released tomorrow morning. Here is a roundup of a few other indexes:

CoreLogic: Home Price Index increased 0.7% in June

[H]ome prices in the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June 2011 compared to May 2011, the third consecutive month-over-month increase. According to CoreLogic, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 6.8 percent in June 2011 compared to June 2010
• FNC: June Home Prices Up for Third Straight Month
Based on the latest data on non-distressed home sales (existing and new homes), FNC’s Residential Price Index™ 1 (RPI) indicates that single-family home prices were up in June at a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.9%. As a gauge of underlying home value, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are often sold with large price discounts due to poor property conditions.
• FHFA Expanded House Price Index (quarterly)
The expanded FHFA national series was down 1.1 percent in Q2 (Seasonally adjusted), and down 6.1% from Q2 2010 ...
• Zillow: Real Estate Market Reports indicated house prices declined 0.1% in June.

• From RadarLogic Housing Markets Continue to Show Weakness
The RPX Composite price, which tracks housing values in 25 major metropolitan markets in the United States, declined 4.7 percent year over year through June. [CR Note: The 25-city composite index increased 1.7% in June 2011.]

Last month, we predicted that the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for May 2011 would be about 154 and the 20-City composite would be roughly 141. In fact, the 10-City composite was 153.64 and the 20-City composite was 139.87.

This month, we expect the June 2011 10-City composite index to be about 156 and the 20-City index to be roughly 142.

We expect RPX values to decline in coming months ... and we expect that similar declines will be observed in the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite indices.
The Case-Shiller index for June will be released Tuesday, August 30th at 9 AM ET. The consensus is for flat prices in June.

Earlier:
Personal Income increased 0.3% in July, Spending increased 0.8%
Comparison of Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM
Weekend:
Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
Schedule for Week of Aug 28th

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