Friday, July 15, 2011

Industrial Production increased 0.2% in June, Capacity Utilization unchanged

by Bill McBride on 7/15/2011 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in June after having edged down 0.1 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, total industrial production increased at an annual rate of 0.8 percent. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. In the second quarter, supply chain disruptions following the earthquake in Japan curtailed the production of motor vehicles and parts and restrained output in related industries; the production index for overall manufacturing was little changed for the quarter. The output of mines rose 0.5 percent in June, while the output of utilities climbed 0.9 percent. At 93.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in June was 3.4 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry remained unchanged at 76.7 percent in June, a rate 2.2 percentage points above the rate from a year earlier but 3.7 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010.
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 9.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 76.7% is still "3.7 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010" - and below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in June to 93.1.

Both industrial production and capacity utilization have been moving sideways recently. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production in June, and an increase to 76.9% for Capacity Utilization.

There is still significant excess capacity.