Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Case Shiller: Home Prices Off to a Dismal Start in 2011

by Bill McBride on 3/29/2011 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January (actually a 3 month average of November, December and January).

This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.

From S&P:Home Prices Off to a Dismal Start in 2011

ata through January 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... show further deceleration in the annual growth rates in 13 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to the December 2010 report. The 10-City Composite was down 2.0% and the 20-City Composite fell 3.1% from their January 2010 levels. San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1%, while Washington DC posted a healthier +3.6% annual growth rate. The same 11 cities that had posted recent index level lows in December 2010, posted new lows in January.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.4% from the peak, and down 0.2% in January (SA). The Composite 10 is still 2.2% above the May 2009 post-bubble bottom.

The Composite 20 index is also off 31.3% from the peak, and down 0.2% in January (SA). The Composite 20 is only 0.7% above the May 2009 post-bubble bottom and will probably be at a new post-bubble low soon.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 2.0% compared to January 2010.

The Composite 20 SA is down 3.1% compared to January 2010.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 8 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in January seasonally adjusted. From S&P (NSA):

In January, the 10-City and 20-City Composites were down 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively, from their December 2010 levels. The monthly statistics show that 19 of the 20 MSAs and both the 10-City and 20-City Composite were down in January 2011 versus December 2010, the only exception being Washington D.C. which posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have posted more than three consecutive months of negative monthly returns. In January 2011, 12 of the 20 MSAs and the 20-City Composite are down by more than 1% compared to their levels in the previous month.
Prices in Las Vegas are off 58% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 7.3% from the peak.

From S&P (NSA):
Continuing the trend set late last year, we witnessed 11 MSAs posting new index level lows in January 2011, from their 2006/2007 peaks. These cities are Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa. These same 11 cities had posted lows with December’s report, as well.
Both composite indices are still slightly above the post-bubble low (SA), but the indexes will probably be at new lows in early 2011.

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