Monday, February 14, 2011

NY Fed Q4 Report on Household Debt and Credit

by Bill McBride on 2/14/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the NY Fed: New York Fed also releases Q4 2010 Quarterly Household Debt and Credit Report, which reveals lower debt levels in region

Here is the Q4 report: Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Here are a couple of graphs:

Total Household Debt Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt is still declining. Debt is now down over $1 trillion from the peak in 2008. Note: This is a combination of writing down debt and consumers paying down debt.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate consumer debt continued to decline in the fourth quarter, continuing its trend of the previous two years. As of December 31, 2010, total consumer indebtedness was $11.4 trillion, a reduction of $1.08 trillion (8.6%) from its peak level at the close of 2008Q3, and $155 billion (1.3%) below its September 30, 2010 level. Household mortgage indebtedness has declined 9.1%, and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) have fallen 6.5% since their respective peaks in 2008Q3 and 2009Q1. For the first time since 2008Q4, consumer indebtedness excluding mortgage and HELOC balances did not fall, but rose slightly ($7.3 billion or 0.3%) in the quarter.
Delinquency Status The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. What stands out is that the percent of delinquent debt is declining, but the percent of severely derogatory debt is remaining the same.

From the NY Fed:
Total household delinquency rates declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in 2010Q4. As of December 31, 10.8% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared to 11.1% on September 30, and 12.0% a year ago. Currently about $1.2 trillion of consumer debt is delinquent and $902 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”). Compared to a year ago, delinquent balances are down 13.9%, and serious delinquencies have fallen 12.1%.
Still a long ways to go. There are a number of credit graphs at the NY Fed site.