Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Comments on FOMC statement

by Bill McBride on 11/03/2010 05:40:00 PM

A few comments ...

  • QE2 (Quantitative Easing, round 2) was about what was expected. The announced amount ($600 billion) was slightly higher than expected, but it was spread over a somewhat longer time frame (through the end of Q2 2011). So the monthly amount - "about $75 billion per month associated with additional purchases and roughly $35 billion per month associated with reinvestment purchases" - was about the expected purchase rate.

  • Most of the Fed purchases will be in the 2.5 to 10 year maturity range. I think investors were surprised at the low level of 30 year buying. Here are the details from the NY Fed: Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities.

  • Goldman Sachs believes that the FOMC will announce additional purchases throughout 2011 and probably into 2012 totalling about $2 trillion for QE2. (not counting reinvestment). If so, this is just the beginning of QE2 ...

  • Goldman Sachs thinks the 10 year treasury yield is at a cyclical low.

  • The FOMC will release their updated forecasts when the FOMC minutes are released on Nov 24th. Clearly the FOMC members revised down their forecasts again - they have been revising down their forecasts all year - but I think they are probably still too optimistic.

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