by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2010 08:30:00 AM

Note: This is a composite index based on a number of economic releases.

From the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity picked up in October

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.28 in October from –0.52 in September.
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.46 in October from –0.33 in September, reaching its lowest level since November 2009. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend for the fifth consecutive month. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. According to the Chicago Fed:

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

This index suggests the economy was sluggish in October.