Thursday, October 14, 2010

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 462,000

by Bill McBride on 10/14/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Oct. 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 462,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 449,000 [up from 445,000]. The 4-week moving average was 459,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 456,750.
Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 2,250 to 459,000.

The 4-week moving average has been moving sideways at an elevated level since last December - and that suggests a weak job market.

Note: most revisions have been slightly up over the last year or so. The average revision has been just over 2,000. But if you follow the 4 week moving average (as I do), this would only impact the last data point - and only by about 500. I couldn't see that on the graph! Not a big deal.