Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Philly Fed September State Coincident Indexes

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2010 04:00:00 PM

Earlier posts on Case-Shiller house prices:

  • Case-Shiller: Home Price declines widespread in August
  • Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio

    Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

    Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Thirty one states are showing increasing three month activity. The index decreased in 12 states, and was unchanged in 7.

    Based on the one month data, this three month activity map be turning even more red next month.

    Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for September.
    In the past month, the indexes increased in 24 states, decreased in 14, and remained unchanged in 12 for a one-month diffusion index of 20. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 31 states, decreased in 12, and remained unchanged in seven for a three-month diffusion index of 38.
    Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data for the number of states with one month increasing activity.

    The indexes increased in 24 states, decreased in 14, and remained unchanged in 12. Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

    A number of states are showing declining activity - and this "recovery" looks very similar to the sluggish recovery following the 2001 recession. No wonder consumer confidence remains very low.