Thursday, September 02, 2010

Greece: Default Probabilities before and after policy response

by Bill McBride on 9/02/2010 12:18:00 PM

Here is a graph from the Council of Foreign Relations blog: Greek Debt Crisis – Apocalypse Later

Greek Default Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph from Paul Swartz at the CFR shows the default probabilities on three different dates:

On April 30th, no European plan was yet in place to address the ballooning Greek debt, and default was considered a real possibility in the short term. On May 11th, just after the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) was announced, markets sharply cut their view on the odds of default across all time horizons. ... On September 1st, the market’s view of the probability of default within two years was lower than before the ESM was announced, but higher over longer time frames.
So initially the policy response lowered the default probabilities across all time frames (from red to light blue), but now - after further analysis - the default probabilities have increased for longer time frames (green).