Monday, August 16, 2010

One Year Supply of Houses? and other stuff

by Bill McBride on 8/16/2010 06:44:00 PM

First on housing ...

  • When the July existing home sales data is released, will we see 12 months of supply? Double-digits supply is a given. The high for this cycle was 11.2 months back in 2008, and based on preliminary reports, I think a new high is very likely and 12 months of supply is a reasonable possibility.

  • CoreLogic reported house prices were flat in June (this is a 3 month weighted average of April, May and June).

  • Altos Research compiles a price index for 10 cities that shows prices falling in July. They report
    "The Composite, which was reasonably flat in June, showed a marked decrease in July, falling more than half a percentage point (0.63%)."
  • RadarLogic CEO Michael Feder writes: Beware the "Fall" of 2010
    Moody’s housing economist Celia Chen has released a forecast of housing that is pretty dire. If the U.S. enters a doubledip recession, writes Chen, home prices could fall another 20% before stabilizing in early 2012. That compares to a baseline forecast that calls for another 5% decline in home prices and a bottom early next year. Chen puts the odds of a near‐term double‐dip at one in four. As observers of the actual housing market, while we cannot say these numbers are right, we certainly support Chen’s concern. However, we think the order of events will be reversed: it is our belief that housing prices will decrease in the autumn, perhaps precipitously, and that may cause a second dip in the U.S. economy.
  • The NAHB showed builder confidence declined in August and is now at the lowest level since March 2009.

    Other reports of interest ...

  • Another installment on Sovereign Debt from "Some Investor Guy" Part 5D: European Banks, What if Things Go Really Badly?

  • NY Fed: Manufacturing Conditions improve "modestly" in August

  • Weekly Schedule for week of August 15th

  • Weekly Summary for week ending Aug 15th.

  • A post on Saturday about the coming Negative News Flow

  • Also from Saturday about why I expect the unemployment rate to increase.

  • On a lighter note, a new song from Merle Hazard Double Dippin'