Monday, August 16, 2010

NAHB Builder Confidence falls in August to lowest since March 2009

by Bill McBride on 8/16/2010 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) was at 13 in August. This is down slightly from 14 in July and below expectations. The record low was 8 set in January 2009, and 13 is very low ...

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the August release for the HMI and the June data for starts (July starts will be released tomorrow).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move generally in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.

Press release from the NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines In August

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged down for a third consecutive month in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI declined one point to 13, its lowest level since March of 2009.
...
“Today’s report reflects single-family home builders’ concerns about current and future economic conditions and about the increasing hesitancy they are seeing among potential home buyers,” added NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “It also reflects the frustration that builders are feeling regarding the effects that foreclosed property sales are having on the new-homes market, with 87 percent of respondents reporting that their market has been negatively impacted by foreclosures.”
...
Two out of three of the HMI’s component indexes fell in August. The component gauging current sales conditions declined one point to 14, while the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined three points to 18. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers held unchanged at 10.

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